Mvula ya nyengo ikadzafika ku Indonesia, alimi nthawi zambiri amaona ngati sikoyenera kuyikapo feteleza wa mbewu zawo.Nthawi zina amasankha kusabzala mbewu zapachaka nkomwe.Kawirikawiri, amapanga chisankho choyenera, chifukwa chakumapeto kwa nyengo yamvula nthawi zambiri zimagwirizana ndi dziko la El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ndi mvula yosakwanira m'miyezi ikubwerayi.
Kafukufuku watsopano wofalitsidwa mu "Science Reports" akuwonetsa kuti ENSO ndi nyengo yowonongeka kwa nyengo yotentha ndi kuzizira panyanja ya Pacific pafupi ndi equator, ndikuwonetseratu kwamphamvu kwa zaka ziwiri mtengo wa koko usanakololedwe.
Izi zitha kukhala nkhani yabwino kwa alimi ang'onoang'ono, asayansi ndi makampani opanga chokoleti padziko lonse lapansi.Kutha kuneneratu kukula kwa zokolola zitha kukhudza zisankho zamabizinesi, kupititsa patsogolo mapulogalamu a kafukufuku wa mbewu za kumalo otentha komanso kuchepetsa ziwopsezo ndi kusatsimikizika kwamakampani a chokoleti.
Ofufuza amanena kuti njira yomweyi yomwe imaphatikiza kuphunzira kwa makina apamwamba ndi kusonkhanitsa deta kwakanthawi kochepa pa miyambo ndi zokolola za alimi ingagwiritsidwenso ntchito ku mbewu zina zomwe zimadalira mvula, kuphatikizapo khofi ndi azitona.
Thomas Oberthür, wolemba nawo komanso woyambitsa bizinesi wa African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI) ku Morocco, adati: "Chofunikira kwambiri pa kafukufukuyu ndikuti mutha kusintha bwino zanyengo ndi data ya ENSO.""Pogwiritsa ntchito njirayi, mutha kufufuza chilichonse chokhudzana ndi ENSO.Mbewu zomwe zimagwirizana ndi kupanga. "
Pafupifupi 80% ya nthaka yolima padziko lapansi imadalira mvula yachindunji (kusiyana ndi ulimi wothirira), yomwe imapanga pafupifupi 60% ya zokolola zonse.Komabe, m’madera ambiri ameneŵa, deta ya mvula imakhala yochepa komanso yosinthasintha kwambiri, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti asayansi, opanga ndondomeko, ndi magulu a alimi akhale ovuta kuzolowera kusintha kwa nyengo.
Mu kafukufukuyu, ochita kafukufuku adagwiritsa ntchito mtundu wa kuphunzira kwamakina komwe sikufuna zolemba zanyengo zochokera ku mafamu a koko aku Indonesia omwe akuchita nawo kafukufukuyu.
M'malo mwake, adadalira zambiri zakugwiritsa ntchito feteleza, zokolola, ndi mtundu wa famu.Iwo adalumikiza izi mu Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) ndipo adapeza kuti siteji ya ENSO idaneneratu 75% ya kusintha kwa zokolola.
Mwa kuyankhula kwina, nthawi zambiri mu phunziroli, kutentha kwa nyanja ya Pacific Ocean kumatha kuneneratu molondola zokolola za nyemba za cocoa.Nthawi zina, ndizotheka kulosera molondola miyezi 25 isanakolole.
Poyambira, nthawi zambiri zimakhala zotheka kukondwerera chitsanzo chomwe chinganene molondola kusintha kwa 50% pakupanga.Izi zolosera zanthawi yayitali za zokolola ndizosowa.
Wolemba nawo komanso wochita kafukufuku wolemekezeka wa mgwirizanowu James Cock adati: "Izi zimatithandizira kuwongolera machitidwe osiyanasiyana pafamu, monga njira za umuna, ndikupereka njira zogwirira ntchito ndi chidaliro chachikulu."International Biodiversity Organisation ndi CIAT."Izi ndikusintha kwathunthu ku kafukufuku wantchito."
Cock, katswiri wa sayansi ya zamoyo za zomera, adanena kuti ngakhale mayesero olamulidwa mwachisawawa (RCTs) nthawi zambiri amatengedwa ngati muyeso wa golide wofufuza, mayeserowa ndi okwera mtengo ndipo nthawi zambiri sangathe kupanga madera otentha.Njira yogwiritsiridwa ntchito pano ndiyotsika mtengo kwambiri, sifunika kusonkhanitsa zolemba zanyengo zodula, ndipo imapereka malangizo othandiza amomwe mungasamalire bwino mbewu pakusintha kwanyengo.
Katswiri wa data komanso wolemba wamkulu wa kafukufukuyu Ross Chapman (Ross Chapman) adafotokoza zina mwazabwino zazikulu zamakina ophunzirira makina panjira zachikhalidwe zakusanthula deta.
Chapman adati: "Mtundu wa BNN ndi wosiyana ndi wanthawi zonse wobwerera m'mbuyo chifukwa ndondomekoyi imatenga zinthu zosiyanasiyana (monga kutentha kwa pamwamba pa nyanja ndi mtundu wa famu) ndiyeno auto'learns' kuzindikira kuyankha kwamitundu ina (monga zokolola), ” adatero Chapman.“Njira yaikulu imene imagwiritsidwa ntchito pophunzira ndi yofanana ndi imene ubongo wa munthu umaphunzira kuzindikira zinthu ndi mmene zinthu zilili pamoyo weniweni.M'malo mwake, mtundu wokhazikika umafunikira kuyang'anira pamanja zosintha zosiyanasiyana pogwiritsa ntchito ma equation opangidwa mwaukadaulo. "
Ngakhale kuti palibe deta ya nyengo, kuphunzira makina kungapangitse kulosera kwabwino kwa zokolola, ngati makina ophunzirira makina amatha kugwira ntchito bwino, asayansi (kapena alimi okha) akufunikirabe kusonkhanitsa molondola mfundo zina zopanga ndikupanga Detayi kuti ipezeke mosavuta.
Kwa famu ya koko yaku Indonesia mu kafukufukuyu, alimi akhala gawo la pulogalamu yabwino yophunzitsira kampani yayikulu ya chokoleti.Amayang'anira zolowa monga kuthira feteleza, amagawana momasuka deta iyi kuti aunike, ndikusunga mbiri yabwino ku International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) yomwe ofufuza azigwiritsa ntchito.
Kuphatikiza apo, asayansi m'mbuyomu adagawa minda yawo m'magulu khumi ofanana omwe ali ndi malo ofanana ndi nthaka.Ofufuzawa adagwiritsa ntchito zokolola, kugwiritsa ntchito feteleza, komanso zokolola kuyambira 2013 mpaka 2018 kuti apange chitsanzo.
Chidziwitso chomwe alimi a cocoa amapeza chimawapatsa chidaliro cha momwe angagwiritsire ntchito feteleza komanso nthawi yake.Maluso azamalimi omwe amapezedwa ndi gulu losaukali amatha kuwateteza ku zotayika za ndalama, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimachitika nyengo yoyipa.
Chifukwa cha mgwirizano wawo ndi ochita kafukufuku, chidziwitso chawo tsopano chikhoza kugawidwa mwanjira ina ndi alimi a mbewu zina m'madera ena a dziko lapansi.
Cork adati: "Popanda kuyesetsa kwa mlimi wodzipereka wa IPNI komanso bungwe lolimba la Community Solutions International, kafukufukuyu sakanatheka."Iye adatsindika kufunikira kwa mgwirizano wamagulu osiyanasiyana ndikulinganiza zoyesayesa za omwe akukhudzidwa.Zosowa zosiyanasiyana.
Oberthür wa APNI adati zitsanzo zamphamvu zolosera zimatha kupindulitsa alimi ndi ofufuza komanso kulimbikitsa mgwirizano.
Obertoor anati: “Ngati ndinu mlimi amene mumasonkhanitsa deta nthawi imodzi, muyenera kupeza zotsatira zooneka.”"Mchitidwewu ukhoza kupatsa alimi chidziwitso chothandiza komanso ungathandize kulimbikitsa kusonkhanitsa deta, chifukwa alimi adzawona kuti akugwira ntchito, zomwe zimapindulitsa pafamu yawo."

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